A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both authors two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
